Only 24 hours left
I haven't had a chance yet to post re-caps here about our recent activites, such as our back-to-back events featuring prominent Illinois Senators (Rauschenberger and Radogno) who were candidates for major statewide offices.

I am running late to class right now, but I just wanted to post a note here saying that, if you haven't already done so, please make a donation towards our "College Republicans" Relay for Life team. These donations will go to the American Cancer Society, and they are 100% tax-deductible!

To contribute, just follow this link, and you can make a quick donation online. You can either donate towards sponsoring one of our individual team members, or you can make a General Donation to sponsor our team as a whole!


In order to count towards this year's "Relay for Life" total, the contributions must be made by tomorrow (Friday) night. ]Donations made online, in the early morning hours of Saturday (April 1st) would probably still be okay.




The Relay for Life will take place from tomorrow (Friday, March 31st) at 6:00 PM until the following morning (Saturday, April 1st) at 6:00 AM. It will be held in the track area of Lincoln Land Community College [that's the small college right next to our UIS campus]. In additon to the actual relay-ing, there will be fun games, activities, and live bands performing, throughout this 12-hour period. [Information sheets here (PDF file) ]

Come on out and support the teams!

Election-Week Group Posting
As indicated below... In accordance with Rich Miller's request for all Illinois bloggers, Blogger.com "invites" were sent out on Election Night to some of our members [including supporters of each of the major campaigns for Governor], so that multiple students would be able to post their thoughts and reflections on our weblog. For the next few days, these guest-writers will be blogging at UISGOP, with their reflections and reactions regarding our current political situation, or anything else related that comes to mind.

If you are a member of our organization, who would like an invite to guest blog here (through this weekend), and if you haven't already received one, then please drop us a line. Thank you very much!

Note: During this time, several of our members have been given the opportunity to post at this weblog. We want to make abundantly clear that viewpoints expressed here are soley those of the entry's authors... They do not represent the views of the organization as a whole. This is the policy that this website has had, in fact, ever since it was begun, and it is the same posting policy that most "group blogs" [especially those of non-profit organizations] have.

The bottom of each entry provides the name and e-mail address of its author. Comments and feedback about the posts can be sent to him or her. In addition (as stated above), if you are a member of the UIS CR organization, and wish to post here, please contact us.

Please see NOTE regarding the guest-posting policy of this site.

Brady, Oberweis, & Topinka
First, I wish to dispel a myth about the election. Namely, the idea that Brady cost Oberweis the election. Let's break it down a bit. Totals for the top 3 candidates:

Topinka-38%
Oberweis-31.8%
Brady 18.7% (for the sake of easy numbers, lets round to 20%)

So the question is, if Brady hadn't been in the election, where would that 20% have gone? I think it is fair to say that some people, though a minority, vote for someone just because they like the person and probably would have voted randomly or not voted at all otherwise. I put that number at 10%. Because voting randomly would probably disperse through the other candidates evenly and thus make no difference in the election, I shall trim that off the top. Now there is 18% of Brady's vote to shift around.

From reading online and talking to people, I also know that there is a small percentage of Brady supporters who refuse to back Oberweis under all but the worst circumstances. I'll put this number at a small 10% as well. If given the choice between Gidwitz and Topinka, they probably would have gone to Topinka. So we now have 16% to play with and Topinka is up to 40%. It is incorrect to say that a Brady supporter would refuse to vote for Topinka. I personally know 2 Brady supporters who had Topinka as their second choice.

There are two other main reasons to vote for Brady. Conservative values and experience. Before factoring in anything else, lets assume that half of the remaining vote would go to Oberweis outright. That puts him at 39.8% vs Topinka's 40%. Seemingly close, right? However, there is still 8% of Brady's vote left.

I theorize that that remaining 8% consisted of a conglomerate of those who voted for Brady based on experience and those conservatives who questioned Oberweis' committment to the cause. Even so, let's be overly nice to Oberweis and give him a third of that vote. That puts him at 42.4% and Topinka at 46%. Slightly closer than the election really was but it didn't make that huge of a difference. Plus it says nothing about the gain for Topinka if Gidwitz had dropped out.


So Topinka is now the Republican Party nominee. She was not my choice. If Brady had not been running, I probably would have voted for Oberweis. However, that being said, I am going to support Topinka's gubanatorial run and I urge my fellow Republicans to do the same. Why? First, when a Republican gains control of a prominent office, there is a ripple effect. If she wins, she can campaign on behalf of our other candidates in 2008 and help us get the party off the ground. Illinois is not going to suddenly shift to the right. It is going to be a gradual process and the only way we can do it is elect people center or slightly to the right. Then we gradually elect people more and more to the right. Topinka is not ideal. She is not even a good choice. But she is better than Blago and if she wins, the party will benefit. The stronger the party is as a whole, the stronger the individual parts are.

It's actually a bit ironic. I'm having a similar argument with people in a Government Simulator game I recently joined. http://worldsimulations.com/USG/index.php

--Jonathan Meyer

As I sit around waiting for the results, here are a couple thoughts. The weather could quite possibly have played a role in the voter turnout today. I voted absentee, but I personally "chauffered" two different people to the polls. The weather was positively horrible. Icy, windy, and brutally cold. To quote Aakash in a conversation we had a week or so back, "if the weather is nasty, it storms or snows a whole bunch, then only the hard core voters will turn out, it will probably affect the outcome."

Who this weather helps the most, is probably relative to which campaign you supported. Who has the most "hardcore supporters?" Time will tell. Current polls show Topinka in the lead, followed in orders by Oberweis, Brady, Gidwitz, and then some goofy character who calls him self Andy holding onto his little sliver one 1% support. You hang in there Andy!

The prize fight currently appears to reflect previous polls. Topinka is out to a lead, though not a huge one (contrary to the premilinary predictions), Oberweis is shy about 5%, Brady sits back in the 20% range (too far to make any sudden jumps, but close enough not to be completely ruled out), and the Gidwitz is sitting on an island of 11% starting to wonder about looking for a boat.

Reporting precincts is sitting around 47 %. Far from final. 101,000 votes separate Judy from Gidwitz. Rough guestimation puts this at a total of 350,000 votes cast, give or take 10,000. Which is a slightly lesser number than the current 370,000 votes cast for the democratic runners. In an interesting developement. Blago's chief rival is currently running in the 33% range. Now the question for the next six monthes will be, how many of these voters are willing to jump party ship to elect a new governor? Hardend Democrats will tell you that none will, but these same Dem's were previously claiming that no one would run against their beloved incumbent. If this newcomers numbers increase, then it will provide a very interesting divide in the party. Exploitation possibilities?

Well, at half the votes counted, it's still anyone's game, and geography is likely going to play a serious role in the outcome. Best of luck to all of the candidates and their supporters, and to the winner.....can I help on your campaign?


David Clary

It's 7:00 PM
The voting is ending...

The waiting begins.


Update: In accordance with Rich Miller's request for Illinois bloggers, I sent out Blogger invites to some of our UIS CR leaders, allowing them to guest-publish on this site, so we can live-blog the results, and reflect on the conclusion of this primary season. [Popular blogger Gordy Hulten, right up the interstate from us, indicated that that's what he was going to do tonight - and I see that that's what's happening.
(In addition to IlliniPundit, Capitol Fax, ILLINOIZE, and Illinois Review may be useful sources, pertinent to this.) [And I shouldn't forget our friend Bruno Behrend, at Extreme Wisdom!!]

I might be too exhausted to post much, so I hope that some of the other CRs will do so. [If some can't post tonight, then perhaps some of them can post reflections here tomorrow, as well.]

Vote Tomorrow!!

An excerpt from the UIS College Republicans e-mail, sent out earlier today:


*** ELECTION DAY!! ***

Tomorrow [Tuesday, March 21st] is the day of the big elections - the primary for all the statewide and local offices.

Some of you are registered to vote at your home addresses, and have told me that you will be driving there tomorrow, to vote. The polls are open from 6 AM until 7 PM.

If you registered to vote using your UIS on-campus address, then your polling location is Lincoln Land Community College, which is right next to our university. To see what your ballot may have on it, go to the Sangamon County election website, at: http://www.co.sangamon.il.us/election

Several students have volunteered to give rides to the polls tomorrow. Please call our "UIS College Republicans 24/7 hotline" (206-2323, or 652-0987), if you need a ride, to your polling location. If your polling location is some place outside of Springfield, we may be able to assist you; please contact us as soon as possible.

Note from the Chairman:
Let me apologize for the lack of updates at this blog during this semester... Please don't let that make you think that we haven't been that active; the opposite is actuallly the case. I wish I had a chance to enumerate some of our activites and accomplishments this semester [from Springfield to Washington, D.C.], but with mid-term exams, recent tornados, imminent snowstorms, ongoing events, and the big day tomorrow, I am [once again] on 24-mode.

It's possible that things will calm down some, after tomorrow. But then again, that's what I've said after the conclusion of the Alan Keyes event, after the November 2004 elections, after Event X, Event Y, Event Z, etc... After each of those major accomplishments for our CR organization, it was said that things would at least be less-hectic, and more time would be available.

But that's never been the case.

Straw Poll for Governor of Illinois


The following item was released by the Secretary of the College Republicans, Handel Metcalf II.

Sunday, March 19, 2006

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: College Republicans, University of IL at Springfield
(217) 206-2323


The capital-city chapter of the College Republicans, one of the most active CR chapters in the state of Illinois, today announced the results of its first-ever member Straw Poll, for Governor of Illinois.

Because Spring Break at the University of Illinois at Springfield (UIS) was this past week, the College Republicans Straw Poll was conducted by electronic ballot. All individuals on the organization's e-mail list, which includes over 100 students from UIS and the neighboring Lincoln Land Community College (LLCC), were given the opportunity to vote, for their choice for Governor, among the five Republican candidates. Despite the holiday break, 32 of the organization's members chose to participate in the Straw Poll, by submitting their confidential e-ballots to the College Republicans Secretary. The results can be viewed in the attached document:
http://www.geocities.com/uisconservative/cr/CR_Straw_Poll_06.pdf


While the respondents to this Straw Poll represent only a fraction of the UIS College Republican's total official membership, those who voted include students from a variety of backgrounds and perspectives. Due to the growth of the UIS CRs during the past two years, Standing Committees have been set up in the organization, including sub-organizations for several of the Republican gubernatorial contenders. In the months ahead, the UIS CRs plan to form student Committees for more of the Republican candidates for statewide, congressional, legislative, and local offices, in the general election.

The College Republicans at UIS has not made any endorsements in the Republican primaries for any office, and the results of the Gubernatorial Straw Poll should not be construed as such. The CRs are proud to have members involved in several of the campaigns for Governor, Lt. Governor, and other offices, while participating in a variety of other political, educational, issue-oriented, and service-related events throughout the state, and at the national level as well.

The College Republicans organization at UIS plans to remain active throughout this semester, and hopes to continue its work in the years ahead.

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